XRP continued its bullish momentum, rising by 1.45% on March 15 after a strong 4.66% rally the previous day. This marks five consecutive winning sessions, outperforming the broader crypto market, which gained only 0.98%. Investor optimism is growing as speculation increases that the SEC might withdraw its appeal in the Ripple case. A potential settlement has fueled demand for XRP, helping it surpass Ethereum (ETH) in fully diluted valuation (FDV). However, regulatory uncertainty remains a key risk.
XRP Outpaces the Crypto Market as SEC Speculation Grows
Investor interest in XRP has surged due to speculation about the SEC’s Crypto Task Force and its influence on Ripple’s case. The SEC has recently made several key moves that suggest a shift in its regulatory approach:
- Dropped enforcement cases against Coinbase and Kraken.
- Withdrew an appeal in the Blockchain Association and Crypto Freedom Alliance of Texas (CFAT) case.
- Closed investigations into Opensea, Robinhood, and Uniswap.
- Requested delays in the Binance and Lejilex cases.
These actions have led to optimism that the SEC may also reconsider its stance on Ripple. Ripple is set to file its appeal-related reply brief by April 16. This gives the SEC time to decide whether to withdraw its appeal or continue the case. A withdrawal could significantly boost XRP’s price.
SEC-Ripple Settlement: Is It Happening?
Reports suggest that Ripple and the SEC are negotiating a settlement. On March 12, Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that both parties were discussing Judge Torres’ Final Judgment. Allegedly, Ripple is negotiating a $125 million settlement, which could include an injunction requiring compliance with Section 5 of the U.S. Securities Act.
A settlement would prevent the SEC from appealing Judge Torres’ ruling on Ripple’s programmatic sales. However, Ripple is not listed in the Crypto Task Force’s recent meetings, updated through March 6. If negotiations started recently, this could explain the absence. Despite the market’s optimism, the SEC’s silence leaves XRP trading well below its all-time high of $3.5505.
XRP Price Forecast: Will It Reach $5 or Drop Below $1.50?
XRP’s price direction depends on two major factors: the SEC’s decision on its appeal and potential approval of XRP-spot ETFs. If the SEC withdraws its appeal, XRP could surge past its all-time high. ETF approval could drive further institutional investment, pushing the price toward $5.
Bullish Outlook: XRP Could Break $3.55 and Beyond
If the SEC settles or withdraws its appeal, XRP could see a rapid price increase. An ETF approval would attract institutional investors, boosting liquidity and confidence. This could push the price beyond $5. Many investors are waiting for regulatory clarity before committing to XRP. An ETF approval would provide that certainty.
Bearish Outlook: XRP May Drop Below $1.50
If the SEC continues with its appeal and rejects XRP-spot ETFs, the market could react negatively. A prolonged legal battle would add uncertainty, discouraging investors. If the crypto market weakens, XRP could face selling pressure, leading to a drop below $1.50.
Conclusion
XRP is at a pivotal moment. Speculation about a potential SEC settlement and ETF approval has driven its recent rally. However, the final outcome remains uncertain. XRP’s future hinges on regulatory decisions in the coming weeks. If the SEC withdraws its appeal, XRP could break past $3.55. If an ETF is approved, prices may reach $5. However, continued legal battles and rejection of ETFs could push prices below $1.50. Investors should stay informed and watch for updates from the SEC, as these decisions will shape XRP’s long-term trajectory.
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